3 things I'm thinking about this week...

 
1 - Actions Speak Louder... It’s clear that Presidential trade proclamations should be thought of as a starting or interim negotiation more than a final position. Markets disagreed with that take in early April but have bounced back. Consumer confidence also rebounded in May as shown below and recession expectations are muted. Heading into midterms, and with potential bond and equity market reactions in mind, I expect continued progress on trade talks. Tariffs could get temporarily delayed by this week’s court rulings but not likely derailed.
 
 
2 - Alterantive...to What? I find (selective) bragging, often about buying Nvidia, Apple and the like, signals someone with their cart before their horse so to speak. More likely to build wealth are those that prioritize their ability (often with the help of an adviser) to behave well even and especially in times of market stress.
 
But as Charlie Munger said, “Invert, always invert.” Good investment behavior starts with avoiding bad decisions. Let’s start with our hardwired tendency to be drawn to complex/novel investment ideas. Alternative investment product-sellers understand this as they seek a (dubious) deal with you, adding illiquidity and fees without providing much in return(s).   This article from The Wall Street Journal criticizes the idea of adding “alts” to 401(k) menus.
 

3 - Unauthorized Enjoyment. I loved Winning Time. The short-lived HBO series about the rise of the Lakers. And I say that as a Trail Blazers fan. The best part for me: it was unauthorized. Not blessed by anyone involved or their estates. It showed the good, the bad and the ugly. That’s unusual – most of these shows are blessed by the principals or their estates. Leading to a sanitized and “approved” version of the past.

Good investing benefits from an “unauthorized” approach. Confirmation bias (our tendency to reinforce current opinion by seeking confirming evidence) is an epidemic. Social media tends to amplify it. I encourage hearing out both what’s good and bad…and then decide. More insight from Munger: “It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”

...and one more thing

NASA astronaut Don Pettit turned 70 upon his return to earth in April from the International Space Station. He’s known for taking some incredible photos, included in this article.