3 things I’m thinking about this week…

1 –  Name Something No One Can Do Consistently...Top 1 Answer Up on the Board.  If you hear this on Family Feud, buzz in with Market Timing. We all think we can…but we can’t! As Warren Buffett wrote in 1979:

“A[n] argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn't it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: "Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved," etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear; you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values.” 

This chart from Visual Capitalist outlines the real cost of market timing:

2. - Apples to Apples.  In thinking about your money goals…step 1 is developing a financial plan…before deciding what to specifically invest in. There’s a lot to choose from…ranging from stocks and bonds to residential real estate, apartment buildings, gold coins, ‘57 Chevys and 25-year-old bottles of Macallan. 

 The rational investor compares all of these choices on the same basis – what is the expected return and what are the risks? 

 For those who gravitate toward investing in additional real estate (already a heavy weight for many with home ownership in California) – I bring up a couple of reminders. The long-term real return of residential real estate is low single digits over time. Real estate brings with it related costs in time and money to own and operate. And it can’t be sold on a dime. The attached article provides more perspective.

Rate of Return of Owning A Home

3. - Is There One Ideal Retirement Age?  We chose 65 as our retirement age over a century ago, when only 60% of Americans lived that long. Does it need a fresh look? 3 things of note in the article below:

  • Think of your health-span (healthy & disability-free) vs. total lifespan. Knowledge workers (now 45% of the workforce) likely extend their health-span by working until their low 70s. 
  • Work that is physical, degrade sleep and with significant stress should have an earlier retirement age.
  • Should we re-think what Social Security should do for us now…perhaps have it reward us with a few years of leisure while we are healthy?

Ideal Retirement Age

…and one more thing

What’s old and discarded often gets rediscovered. Sports logos go through this pattern...classics from the past abandoned in the name of innovation. The good news is some of them are coming back. Below is the misguided evolution and (partial) return of the “Ball in Glove” Milwaukee Brewers logo, courtesy of sportslogos.net. Kind of a combo of their first two.

P.S. Could we get this one back?